Quarterly Positions Review

I recommend a number of stocks that I have bought or hold.  I believe in putting your money where your mouth is. This is a partial review of stocks that you might acquire, add to, or hold:

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Review of the Week in Crisis and Its Opportunities

Bad weeks are good weeks for value vultures.  The NTT DoCoMo (DCM)  buy, had you jumped on in that two day window, you were able to acquire it and add about a 6-8% bonus for the timing. Still, at under 20.00, it is an attractive buy, especially as mobile communications are going to be key for large areas rebuilding and in the event of more permanent evacuations from areas around the damaged nuclear facility.

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Japan Opportunity

The Japanese market is going to reel for at least a few days over the Tsunami and the now 9.0 earthquake.  I am buying the ADR for NTT DoCoMo Inc, (DCM) the largest mobile phone provider in Japan.  The networks are down in places, and emergency crews get first dibs on the working network up North, but it is operating all over the country and their data network, which is not under emergency order, is flying as an alternative in the areas where they have to stay off of voice lines. There will be some down quarters ahead, to be sure, with damage and the loss of so much, but, unlike their land-line counterpart at NTT, they will be able to see profits quicker, and their pre-earthquake outlook looks to be about the same.  It would be a ho-hum stock had the market not sapped it yesterday, and this morning on the Nikkei.  I spoke to Morningstar’s analyst to get a read on the situation, and his update is on their analysis.  It’s a pretty good buy at current ADR prices as long as they stay under 20-21.  I am researching other options and will keep you posted.

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Opportunties in Misfortune

There are times where all kinds of bad things happen around the world.  At these times, aside from the tragedy, there is a day to be spent reviewing stocks in the affected area. over the next few days several will be punished, many unjustly, for fears about the quake delaying business.

I will keep my ear to the ground for such opportunities this week in Japan and the Asian markets.

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March Thoughts and Buys

As I’ve mentioned before recently, the market is highly over-valued, based on the metrics which I use to follow value stocks.  I told you about three weeks ago to take some profit out of your investments from 2008-2009 that have already hit windfall levels. Hopefully you did so. Now you have some cash to reinvest.  Where?

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What to Buy When the Market is Overvalued

There are a few stocks, based on the value window that I’ve given you in the past, that meet the criteria of a good investment that pays a dividend right now. Very few. 8 in fact.  Of which, I already own enough of all 8 that I don’t want more.  If you followed along and sold some of your investments from 2008 and 2009 at a rather healthy profit, you’re sitting with cash on the sidelines much like me, or Berkshire Hathaway, although we’re all about $40B behind them.

So what do you buy?

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Sell Affirmed

If you look at Morningstar’s article on Warren Buffett this morning, the Oracle of Omaha is doing what I’m doing as well: Seeing the oversaturated market, taking profit, and waiting for the correction.  With oil unrest taking center stage, the pretense for correction exists. Add to that my recent recommends in oil and mineral rights stocks that pay 7-10% dividends are all up 3-22% over the last two weeks and you have the signs of a shift.

If you made some money on it, and you don’t want to ride the ride another cycle, get it gone.

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Of Sparrows and Vultures: High-Soaring Investments Look Tempting

I will often be asked: “Why should I spend six years to make my money when I can buy small stock X that went up 432% last week, or buy Apple which zooms up from time to time,  and be done with it?”

There are a lot of ways to make money in the stock market.  Everyone finds a way that suits their temperament, their tolerance for risk, and their adrenaline level.  Beyond that though, I have to ask you: How much are you willing to pay for nothing.

Any time that you buy a stock in excess of its fair market value, that is what you are buying.

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Time To Harvest Your Stocks

According to my time-tested indicators, the market is very, very overvalued right now. That is not to suggest that a large or sharp correction is imminent, but certainly there is little doubt that, with prices as high as they are, a little bad news or some collective profit-taking by mutual and hedge funds could cause a reset of at least 3%-5%.

If you have followed my column that was formerly on Morningstar.com, as value vultures, we were engaged in buying stocks of companies that would benefit from the calamities in the market which had found themselves wedged in the circumstances of fear and credit crunches.

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What to Buy in 2011 and What to Sell in 2010

(This is my  annual note to friends and fellow investors who follow my picks. I have made a number of them over time, and most will not be discussed here. If there are others that I picked that you want me to talk about, just leave a comment and I will get to them as I have time.  The more significant ones are included here, and are also available at my blog on Morningstar.com to subscribers there.  – BMR)

As a good Value Vulture, I set upon a course through 2008 to now to buy distressed companies and companies that were profitable but having their stocks hammered unjustly by the greater circumstances of the market.

They had to have incredible cash flow, lower debt, a 17% discount to fair market value and dream of all impossible dreams, a 3% or better dividend return.

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