Archive for category Stock Picks

A Quick Word on Royalty Trusts

Some of you have shared your comments, thank you, on some of the royalty trusts mentioned as short-term holds. Great Northern Iron (GNI) ends its trust in 2015. This is true. We do not see it as a play longer than 12-18 months as we watch the market corrections settle in.  In fact, as opportunities arise to invest, we will be taking money out of those holding tanks and moving them into other things.   It is staying within its trading range, though, which does not indicate any immediate cause for alarm. Four years in investing cycles is quite long.

Leave a comment

Over-Value Alert

The market has again hit overheated levels. Our valuation tool, which, in a pricey market will sport 20 stocks, about 8 of which are in good value range is down by 50%.  Only 10 stocks make our “window” and of them, only two, Abbott Labs (ABT) and France Telecom (FTE) are still in an attractive range, although they were far more so earlier in the year.

We have already positioned stock portfolios to some of the high yield companies that were discussed here previously.

If you have made good money, particularly in a stock that would be market sensitive to a correction or two, now may be a good time to sell it and take your profits.  CDs trade at below-inflation rates after taxes. Money markets have had troubles in severe corrections cashing out quickly.  We feel that high yield stocks are your best bet for return and relative stability (They’re still stocks, though, and subject to some level of correction along with the market.  Use the charts from 2008-2009 as your guide to see how well these companies do in a downturn.)

If you see a stock, however, that can ride through a few oil-driven corrections (The likely thing to be blamed for a correction), then you should just consider sticking with it and riding out this latest wave on your stock surfboard.

When the wave crashes, it will be time to buy again.

Leave a comment

Quarterly Positions Review

I recommend a number of stocks that I have bought or hold.  I believe in putting your money where your mouth is. This is a partial review of stocks that you might acquire, add to, or hold:

Read the rest of this entry »

Leave a comment

Review of the Week in Crisis and Its Opportunities

Bad weeks are good weeks for value vultures.  The NTT DoCoMo (DCM)  buy, had you jumped on in that two day window, you were able to acquire it and add about a 6-8% bonus for the timing. Still, at under 20.00, it is an attractive buy, especially as mobile communications are going to be key for large areas rebuilding and in the event of more permanent evacuations from areas around the damaged nuclear facility.

Read the rest of this entry »

Leave a comment

Japan Opportunity

The Japanese market is going to reel for at least a few days over the Tsunami and the now 9.0 earthquake.  I am buying the ADR for NTT DoCoMo Inc, (DCM) the largest mobile phone provider in Japan.  The networks are down in places, and emergency crews get first dibs on the working network up North, but it is operating all over the country and their data network, which is not under emergency order, is flying as an alternative in the areas where they have to stay off of voice lines. There will be some down quarters ahead, to be sure, with damage and the loss of so much, but, unlike their land-line counterpart at NTT, they will be able to see profits quicker, and their pre-earthquake outlook looks to be about the same.  It would be a ho-hum stock had the market not sapped it yesterday, and this morning on the Nikkei.  I spoke to Morningstar’s analyst to get a read on the situation, and his update is on their analysis.  It’s a pretty good buy at current ADR prices as long as they stay under 20-21.  I am researching other options and will keep you posted.

, , , , ,

Leave a comment

March Thoughts and Buys

As I’ve mentioned before recently, the market is highly over-valued, based on the metrics which I use to follow value stocks.  I told you about three weeks ago to take some profit out of your investments from 2008-2009 that have already hit windfall levels. Hopefully you did so. Now you have some cash to reinvest.  Where?

Read the rest of this entry »

Leave a comment

What to Buy When the Market is Overvalued

There are a few stocks, based on the value window that I’ve given you in the past, that meet the criteria of a good investment that pays a dividend right now. Very few. 8 in fact.  Of which, I already own enough of all 8 that I don’t want more.  If you followed along and sold some of your investments from 2008 and 2009 at a rather healthy profit, you’re sitting with cash on the sidelines much like me, or Berkshire Hathaway, although we’re all about $40B behind them.

So what do you buy?

Read the rest of this entry »

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Leave a comment

Sell Affirmed

If you look at Morningstar’s article on Warren Buffett this morning, the Oracle of Omaha is doing what I’m doing as well: Seeing the oversaturated market, taking profit, and waiting for the correction.  With oil unrest taking center stage, the pretense for correction exists. Add to that my recent recommends in oil and mineral rights stocks that pay 7-10% dividends are all up 3-22% over the last two weeks and you have the signs of a shift.

If you made some money on it, and you don’t want to ride the ride another cycle, get it gone.

Leave a comment

Of Sparrows and Vultures: High-Soaring Investments Look Tempting

I will often be asked: “Why should I spend six years to make my money when I can buy small stock X that went up 432% last week, or buy Apple which zooms up from time to time,  and be done with it?”

There are a lot of ways to make money in the stock market.  Everyone finds a way that suits their temperament, their tolerance for risk, and their adrenaline level.  Beyond that though, I have to ask you: How much are you willing to pay for nothing.

Any time that you buy a stock in excess of its fair market value, that is what you are buying.

Read the rest of this entry »

Leave a comment

Time To Harvest Your Stocks

According to my time-tested indicators, the market is very, very overvalued right now. That is not to suggest that a large or sharp correction is imminent, but certainly there is little doubt that, with prices as high as they are, a little bad news or some collective profit-taking by mutual and hedge funds could cause a reset of at least 3%-5%.

If you have followed my column that was formerly on Morningstar.com, as value vultures, we were engaged in buying stocks of companies that would benefit from the calamities in the market which had found themselves wedged in the circumstances of fear and credit crunches.

Read the rest of this entry »

Leave a comment

%d bloggers like this: